Excess Success
"I would be truly blind if I did not have vision." ~ Helen Keller
<<July 28, 1999>>
Now THIS was the last straw!
Everyone already KNEW that you had lost to this guy five times in a row - he didn't need to rub it in your face by making such a show of counting up the weaponry to make sure you had the APPROPRIATE advantage for his handicap. You're going to beat him at least once if its the last thing you do!
You try to match "Commander" Turla's patronizing smile as you synchronize watches and your troops carry away the equipment to the respective starting areas. Oh, he's going to pay for this.
You mimic Turla as once again when he wishes you good luck, intentionally putting just a little more sarcasm into your voice than him. You both pat the concealed XP 20s you know each other have in their pockets and nonchalantly head over to your chosen base locations.
The instant Turla is out of sight, your charade dissolves and your smile is replaced by a look of grim determination. Turla is NOT going to best you again.
* * * * *
Yes, you answer your XO, you DO have a plan . . . sort of.
Last night you were reading a strategy guide for one of your computer games, hoping to glean some sort of idea, when one general phrase lept out of the book at you . . . success breeds predictability!
You whip out a small pad of paper that you took some notes on last night and begin looking over the battle records . . .
Battle #1
Troops: 20 (Turla), 20 (you)
Equipment: CPS 2500, CPS 1500 x2, XP 250 x3, XXP 175 x3, XP 150 x3, XP
110 x5, XP 90 x5, XP 70 x2 (Turla), [same] (you)
Minutes: You sent out scouts to locate Turla's forces. When they turned
up nothing, you sent out more scouts. When you still found nothing, you decided they must
be constantly relocating and sent out yet more. You were defeated by a surprise attack
from Turla while half your forces were searching.
Victor: Turla
Battle #2
Troops: 18 (Turla), 22 (you)
Equipment: CPS 1500 x2, XP 250 x2, XP 150 x6, XP 110 x5, XP 90 x3, XP 70
(Turla),
CPS 2500 x2, CPS 1500 x2, XP 250 x4, XXP 175 x6, XP 110 x5, XP 90 x8, XP 70 x3 (you)
Minutes: Turla made blitz attack against you with light weapons. You
fought them back with a large portion of your troops half way across the battlefield, but
Turla slowly withdrew troops from that battle and finally made a rear attack on your base.
Victor: Turla
Battle #3
Troops: 17 (Turla), 23 (you)
Equipment: CPS 1500, XP 250 x2, XP 150 x4, XP 110 x7, XP 90 x2, XP 70 x2
(Turla)
CPS 2500 x2, CPS 1500 x3, XP 250 x4, XXP 175 x5, XP 110 x3, XP 90 x8, XP 70 x2 (you)
Minutes: Turla made blitz attack against you with light weapons. You fought them
back with a small portion of your troops half way across the battlefield, but Turla led
your troops into an ambush and made short work of them and took their equipment. Then,
with superior numbers and equipment, attacked your base.
Victor: Turla
Battle #4
Troops: 15 (Turla), 25 (you)
Equipment: CPS 1500, XP 250, XP 150 x3, XP 110 x10, XP 90, XP 70 (Turla)
CPS 2500 x2, CPS 1500 x3, XP 250 x5, XXP 175 x6, XP 90 x9, XP 70 x3 (you)
Minutes: You waited for a blitz attack from Turla, but it never came. You
sent out scouts. When none of them returned, you sent out small search parties, none of
which returned. Fearful for your numbers, you kept the remaining troops at the base. 20
minutes later, when all your troops had abandoned vigilance, Turla made a surprise attack.
You found out later his forces had split up and taken up sniping positions all over the
battlefield.
Victor: Turla
Battle #5
Troops: 13 (Turla), 27 (you)
Equipment: XP 250, XP 150 x2, XP 110 x9, XP 70 (Turla)
CPS 2500 x2, CPS 1500 x3, XP 250 x5, XXP 175 x5, XP 90 x10, XP 70 x3 (you)
Minutes: You kept all forces at base and rotated watch shifts in an
attempt to maintain vigilance. Turla's forces made hit-and-run attacks while you changed
guards. After wearing your forces down to 10 men, Turla attacked in force from a different
angle, taking you by surprise.
Victor: Turla
Battle #6 (Current)
Troops: 12 (Turla), 28 (you)
Equipment: XP 150 x5, XP 110 x10 (Turla)
CPS 2500 x3, CPS 1500 x3, XP 250 x5, XXP 175 x5, XP 90 x10, XP 70 x5 (you)
Minutes: Battle in progress!
"Looks pretty dismal, if you ask me," your XO comments. "Any ideas?"
"Give me a minute!" you retort. You glance at your watch -- another 10 minutes to come up with a plan before open-fire . . . of course, its not like its going to be very "open" with the battlefield made up of such a dense forest with thick undergrowth. You couldn't see someone 15 feet away if they didn't want to be seen. You toy with the idea of sending out scouts before the open-fire to get a head start.
Your mind races as you give up the idea of getting help from your XO for your plan and you realize you need to come up with an impressive plan quickly, but one thing you know for sure:
You are NOT going to lose to Turla again!!!
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I would first send out 2 XP 90s as scouts, then stick the 2500s behind cover in a triangular formation, keeping the rest of my men in the base in good cover.
Note: if the two Xp 90s do not return, I will send out no more scouts.
~Commodore 7
That's a bit vague. I was hoping, with five battles to analyze, that you could come up with a more interesting insight than "send out no more scouts."
Ah, well, that's the way things go. I'm afraid, however, you're going to need something quite a bit more brilliant to win. What's to stop Turla from repeating battle 5? Or even battle 4, since you're not planning to rotate guard shifts? If the best you can come up with is spreading out your three biggest guns and sending out two lightly-armed scouts, you're doomed once again.
Yes, I realize that you have far superior numbers and equipment; but he beat you with not much better odds LAST time, and I don't see any major improvements on your part.
Brace yourselves, this is a LONG one.
First, I'd evaluate Turla's past strategies. Two things seem
obvious:
- First, Turla evens the odds by dividing up your forces into smaller groups and wiping
those groups out (whether by picking of patrols/scouts or drawing forces into an ambush).
I would have to agree with that.
- Second, Turla isn't too patient, he tends to take the fight to the enemy.
I would have to disagree with that, at least partially. In battle #4, he spent most of the battle picking off scouts and waited 20 minutes after they stopped coming before he attacked. The point is conceded, however, that he doesn't seem to mind when you let him come to you.
My strategy would then be based on denying him the opportunity to divide my forces. This becomes easier because even if I divide my forces in half, each half outnumbers his entire force.
Not by much.
Here is what I would do:
1. I divide my forces in half, one force to operate primarily independent but near to the base (more details to follow), the other to stay in the base on guard with strict orders not to leave the base unless ordered (to prevent a blitz attack from drawing out my troops).
The independent force would be armed as follows:
- 3 x 1500
- 4 x 250
- 7 x 90
The remaining weapons would be distributed within the base. This allows the independent force a punch, and keeps the more water wasting 2500s near refill points. Range shouldn't be in issue as the visual range is only 15ft.
2. I would send out the independent force with very specific
orders:
- The force would patrol the area around the base from the base to 25ft out (ten ft beyond
visual range, but well within voice range). They would travel in three separate groups,
two 90s out ahead of the main body - just beyond sight, two 90s behind the main body, just
beyond sight, and the main body between them. This force, in this formation, would patrol
clockwise around the base in the aforementioned formation, just out of visual range of the
base.
There's two major problems I see so far. First of all, it becomes extremely difficult to maintain a formation when the groups cannot see each other. Secondly, any formation lends predictability to a force, and these orders are already very strict and repeating.
I would expect something like this:
Turla is likely to send in a scout to observe your formation, at least eventually. Because the visual range to the base and your patrolling force overlaps, one of three things will happen: the scout will see you and disappear into the woods without being detected, you will see the scout and chase him into the woods, or the scout will (by unlikely chance) return to the woods without seeing or being seen by your patrol force.
In the second instance, if you both see each other and a battle ensues, there are two likely outcomes; your force will chase him off and return to the patrol route or follow him through the woods. There is so much cover that it is unlikely you could hit a fleeing target at range, and when your two XP 90s stumble upon a scout, they don't even have the option of trying to sneak up because there's ten people following them through the woods, doubtless making significant noise, who they cannot even signal to keep quiet without alerting the scout.
If they follow him through the woods in an attempt to overtake and kill him, they'll probably be led right into an ambush. Your forces will be eradicated easily (if only the front two XP 90s follow) or merely defeated (if the entire force comes), and either way you haven't accomplished anything. You might take out a few of his troops, but it sounds like he's become extremely adept at this point in ambushing and sniping, and you only outnumber him by those two XP 90s guarding the back who won't arrive till your force is at least half-dead, if they come at all.
At this point, if the scout saw your force and escaped, regardless of whether or not you saw him, he almost definitely got away. Now Turla has some idea about your formation, and can send out more scouts who know there is a patrol to watch you. They should be able, without casualty (although not necessarily without being sighted) to learn the size, formation, armament, and route of your patrol, as well as similar information about your base, unless your patrol can make a circuit all the way around in something like a minute or less, which would abandon all attempt at stealth.
Now, Turla can lay a simple trap. Set up an ambush for the patroling party -- he already knows their route -- outside the visual range of your base, so as not to give a warning. When the front two soldiers come through, they are drenched the moment they enter visual range and, thus being dead, cannot give any warning. The ambushers then retreat out of visual range of the patrol (or most of the way out, so they cannot be easily seen) and let the main body go past, but then do to the back two what they did to the front two. Because the foreguard and rearguard are moving out of visual range from the rest of the force, they may never notice. Then, on the next circuit, Turla ambushes the main force (now with superior numbers - 12v10). He now has eliminated half your force, which you conveniently divided for him, and has acquired more weaponry from them. You now outnumber him by only about 2 people, and he can simply repeat battle #4.
In the unexpected event the scout sent to observe your base does NOT have an encounter with your patrol, then he will report a lightly-defended base (only half your forces) back to Turla, who will assume the rest of your forces are out looking for him. He can then go into hiding while he lays some fiendish plan to defeat you at your base, and when he makes his move he is no more likely to encounter your patrol than your scout was. If you call in your patrol as reinforcements when he attacks, it might actually do some good, the only such scenario I can think of.
- To ensure there were no accidental shootings of these patrollers by our base guards, base guard would be ordered to challenge any movement with a code word (i.e. 'Red') and if they did not receive the correct counter (i.e.'Blue') then the force could be considered hostile.
While this will prevent accidental shootings, it also gives away your knowledge of the approaching force and gives them time to react to this knowledge while you wait for a response.
- The purpose of the independent formation is many fold.
It may suck Turla into thinking I'm compounding past mistakes if he or one of his
ambushing forces spots either 'patrol' carrying 90s (ahead and behind). If he ambushes
either patrol, the main force between them would hear a battle and be able to attack the
ambushing force while it is either engaged, or at least after it has expended some of its
water and isn't expecting attack.
*This ploy could realistically only be used once unless all ambushers were
eliminated as they could report back to Turla with the info. Also, any kills made by the
independent force would have to be report by runner to base so I could keep track of the
remaining forces at Turla's disposal.
You've got two-man teams. If they get ambushed in a one-hit elimination game, that isn't a battle, that's two shots. It's called "sniping." If they spot your main force, they'll catch wind before you can put your plan into effect, and I still think that if any of his observers spot your 90s they'll be wary enough that they won't RUN if they aren't seen, they'll merely HIDE, and by the time your 90s are out of sight they'll already be seeing your main force.
If they encounter your rear vanguard, as they are departing . . . no more rear guard, and the observer isn't stupid enough to stick around in plain sight to be attacked by the body of your patrol even if they come charging in immediately like idiots (because if they hear the 90s dying, its probably because Turla's drawing them in).
The independent for can also destroy any snipering groups such as the ones Turla used in Battle #5, stopping that threat.
If you give him the opportunity by rotating base guards, he won't have to wait. Assuming you only had two shifts, you've got only 7 people on duty at any given time, and he can easily overpower you with a quick attack. However, if you don't rotate guards, he can stay clear on the other side of the battlefield and wait for half an hour while your troops get bored and relax their guard and start chatting on the job, giving away their positions. He seems to like using morale tactics against you.
Finally, this force could form a flanking unit if Turla attempted any blitz attacks. If the attack came on the side they were patrolling at the time (unlikely but possible) the independent force would outnumber them, even if Turla committed all he had. The force would cause at least some damage to Turla, though I expect they would do a great deal. If the attack came on a different side, even if it was opposite to the one the independent force was patrolling, they could circle around out of sight and engage Turla on one of his flanks. Their orders would be not to leave their patrol area, however, so they would not get pulled into an ambush. If an attack occurred, the independent force would be informed by voice (i.e. 'Attack from the west!') so that they could proceed to the location and engage.
If your troops start frantically shouting out that they're under attack, and keep nervously making calls after all the defenders are clearly fighting because they're afraid and your patrol hasn't attacked yet, that alone will allow Turla to change tactics. However, even if you managed to get the call out exactly once and he thought you were rallying the defenders, just how quickly and orderly do you think they could make their way around without being detected, when they're ensnared in such dense underbrush that they can't even see more than 15' ahead of themselves? What do you think the phrase "blitz attack" means? Turla would be trying to overwhelm whatever guards you had on that side instantly so they could press inside your base and take you out in complete chaos instead of giving you the benefit of cover from defensive barricades, or at the least would move up and take up cover from them on the opposite side and start firing into your base. Once your base is lost, that probably ends the battle, but even if it doesn't, Turla then has the advantage in both position and equipment. Besides, Turla will probably notice your patrol if they're moving around very fast -- a 25 ft radius circle isn't that big.
And, once again, if they're just sniping you or trying to wear down defenses with hit-and-run tactics, they're not going to stick around long enough to be flanked.
3. As for refilling for the independent force, they would only be allowed to return to base to refill in threes, leaving a force at least comparable to Turla's in the field at all times, hopefully with enough water to deal with him if it became necessary.
A TOTAL force which is comparable to Turla's, maybe, but with 2 ahead and 2 behind that you're sacrificing in an attempt to learn of his location, that brings you down to 9 troops, even counting the other guard, which puts you at 3 to 4 odds against Turla, who already seems to be doing pretty well when he's AGAINST the odds.
My entire strategy is base on luring Turla into a trap yet covering against all of Turla's past victory strategies. Only after I had confirmed the destruction of 75% of his forces (9 troops) would I begin to send out scouts for his base - parties of three with medium armaments in each direction (north, south, east, west). After the base was located I would put together a force (probably about half my unit) and attack until it was captured with no real threat of counter attack.
~ Dreadnought
You may have noticed that he hasn't really repeated himself yet. Therefore, you not only need to protect against his PAST victory strategies, but whatever he's going to try THIS time, which has a reasonable chance of being something original that I haven't even thought to counter with yet.
Oh, and he doesn't seem to care about his base much, so whether capturing it is the criteria for winning or not, I wouldn't expect to meet up with defenders there -- of course, how do you know its his base if there aren't any? You're using secret base locations, remember?
I do compliment you on a detailed and reasonably innovative plan. In the future, I recommend you try to imagine any way your defenses could possibly be brought down, and then see if you can block that, too.
I would hold all my troops around my base with the exception of one scout with a CPS 1500 to lure back any of Turla's team or information. I would alert my men of any possible blitz or ambushes. With all my forces so close together, it wouldn't be hard to make a hit, so I would have my men spread out enough so that It doesn't take a blind shot to hit. I would want my men in a circle around base keeping watch in front of them until the attack comes. I my scout comes back, he would be assigned as my guard.
~ Anthony
I think that one scout with a CPS weapon is not going to survive long enough to lure back any enemies if he's discovered.
I'm not sure what you mean by "alert my men of any possible blitz or ambushes." What are you going to tell them? "All right, listen up everyone. They could be anywhere. They might attack from any direction at any moment . . . um, just wanted to warn you."
Come on, he's already beaten roughly this plan in battle #4. If you're just counting on the odds Turla's beaten so many times to save you, its not really worth sending in a solution.
Considering that sending out scouts has no effect, and playing defensivly doesn't work ethier, I would just grab everything I could carry and trek over to his base.
~john
Brilliant plan. Just march in and attack. Whatever.
Look, if you can explain your entire solution in one sentence, it's probably not worth sending in. Because the odds have been tipped so incredibly far in your favor already, you might win -- but only if Turla has run out of good ideas. I can think up a few dozen ways off the top of my head that Turla could tip the scales in his favor, and he (we can assume) has had several days to come up with a battle plan. He may not know your's, but something so simple would be easy to adapt to if his plan has any flexibility at all.