The Importance of Accurate Estimation

One of the most deadly mistake that a tactician can make is that of misgauging their opponent's skill and power. Accurately determining what you are up against is necessary to determine how elaborate a plan should be used, and is therefore crucial. Unfortunately, it is also one of the easiest mistakes to make.

It is worth asking the question whether it is better to overestimate or underestimate your opponent. The answer, however, is somewhat complicated. If you underestimate your opponent, he may surprise you with a clever plot and unravel all your plans. For example, they might anticipate an ambush you thought would not occur to them and attack in force before you are ready. However, if you overestimate him, he is just as likely to ruin your plans making some simple mistake you had counted on him to avoid -- for example, they may plunge into a spot where it would be very easy to ambush them, but which you had assumed he would avoid as unsafe, so you did not plant an ambush there for him.

Between the two, it is probably safer to overestimate your enemy, because if your plans fail because the enemy is too stupid to notice them, then at least you have a greater advantage in skill than you had counted on for the rest of the battle; you have only lost one opportunity, and your enemy is sure to provide you with more. If your plans fail because he sees through them, then not only do you miss the chance to beat him in the first engagement, but he is much more likely to press his advantage. But above all, you should always strive for accuracy.

 

By the same rule, it is always of use to give your opponent an inaccurate impression of your own skill. However, this must be done consistently -- if you oscillate between trying to appear smart and trying to appear simple, your attempts are likely to cancel one another out. Generally, if you know what your enemy already thinks of you, you can try to exaggerate whatever error they have already made -- if they think you a nobody, you should appear inexperienced, but if a great reputation precedes you, you should appear a master.

However, whatever impression you try to project, take note of how effective it seems to be, and do not forget. Nothing is more embarrassing than falling into a simple trap that you saw ahead of time because you forgot your opponent thought you were foolish enough to fall into it, and you thought it was a feint to distract you from something else.